2022 Housing Market 12 months In Evaluate

17 housing tendencies that outlined the 12 months, together with report house costs and sky-high mortgage charges

The 2022 housing market was nothing in need of exceptional. The pandemic and ensuing distant work continued to outline how, when, and the place folks purchased properties. The median U.S. house worth hit a report excessive earlier than falling barely. Rising rents stretched renters’ budgets. Excessive inflation put elevated stress on virtually everybody. For the primary time in historical past, mortgage charges doubled within the span of only one 12 months. The checklist goes on

Basically, 2022 was a response to the dramatic actual property increase in 2021. The 12 months began with a surge in costs and progress throughout the board earlier than falling alongside report inflation within the fall. November and December noticed a a lot slower and seasonally-expected housing market, with year-over-year adjustments in lease costs, home costs, and rates of interest both falling or slowing down. 

Under is a non-exhaustive checklist of information factors and visuals that outlined the 2022 housing market. 

1. House costs rose to an all-time excessive

In Might, the standard house bought for $430,365, a report excessive since information started in 1963, shattering 2021’s excessive of $386,000. In March, the median sale worth rose 16.8% 12 months over 12 months, the most important proportion enhance over the past 5 years. Following the pandemic, demand skyrocketed whereas provide remained traditionally low, inflicting a extreme housing scarcity and worth increase that continued all through 2021 and peaked halfway by way of 2022. In April and Might, mortgage charges rose to fight rising inflation, which started reversing housing tendencies from earlier within the 12 months. 

Regardless of a rapidly cooling housing market, costs are nonetheless larger at present than any earlier 12 months on report. 

2. San Francisco was the most costly metro space for homebuyers in 2022 

The median sale worth of a house in San Francisco was $1,505,000 in 2022, up 0.3% 12 months over 12 months. For one week in April, the median worth reached a excessive of $1,700,000, just under 2021’s all-time excessive of $1,728,000. Because the 12 months went on, costs dropped nearer to pre-pandemic ranges, which can probably proceed till mortgage charges fall additional.  

• Six of the highest ten most costly metros had been in California.
• Many Florida metros skilled the most important year-over-year worth progress, together with Tampa (18%), Orlando (14.9%), Jacksonville (14.7%), and Miami (14.2%).
• Tampa had the most important year-over-year worth progress of all massive metros within the nation. 

The highest ten most costly cities to purchase a house in 2022

Information contains the yearly aggregated median sale costs out of all properties bought in every of the 50 largest metropolitan areas. Information doesn’t bear in mind native median incomes and residential affordability.

3. Detroit was the least costly metro space for homebuyers in 2022

The median sale worth for a house in Detroit was $165,000 in 2022, up 3.3% 12 months over 12 months. House costs in Detroit hit $213,000 for per week in June, making it the most costly month of the 12 months however nonetheless practically 50% decrease than the nationwide median. Basically, year-over-year worth will increase in 2022 had been smaller throughout most main metros than in 2021, and progress dipped additional heading into the primary week of December. 

• The highest ten least costly metros had been all positioned within the Rust Belt, a geographic area close to the Nice Lakes.
• Philadelphia was the one massive metro that skilled a worth lower in 2022.
• Kansas Metropolis, MO was the eleventh least costly metro, and the primary non-Rust-Belt metro on the checklist.

The highest ten least costly cities to purchase a house in 2022

Information contains the yearly aggregated median sale costs out of all properties bought in every of the 50 largest metropolitan areas. Information doesn’t bear in mind native median incomes and residential affordability. 

4. Lease costs rose dramatically as provide struggled to maintain up with demand

Lease costs in 2022 had been 12.8% larger than they had been in 2021. Nationwide, the median lease worth rose to $2,053 in August earlier than dipping barely, the very best on report and a 12.3% enhance year-over-year. Following the pandemic, lease costs skyrocketed largely due to a lack of supply and a boom in demand, each of that are simply now balancing out.

• Median lease costs in New York rose to over $4,000, retaining its dominance as the most costly metro for renters within the nation.
• Lots of the least costly metros skilled the very best year-over-year lease will increase, together with Oklahoma Metropolis (23.3%), Cincinnati (17.6%), and Pittsburgh (14.8%).
• Oklahoma Metropolis skilled the very best year-over-year lease will increase within the nation.  
• Lease progress has persistently outpaced wages for many years, however the most recent data states {that a} staggering 40% of renters spent greater than 30% of their earnings on lease from 2017-2021.

There are at present over 1.1 million rental items below building within the U.S., which can come obtainable for lease over the subsequent 12 months, serving to to alleviate a part of the housing scarcity.

“We count on rents to fall in practically each a part of the nation by the center of 2023 as provide begins overtaking demand,” notes Taylor Marr, Redfin Deputy Chief Economist. “Whereas renters sometimes get the very best deal through the winter months as demand is decrease, rents are persevering with to ease. Due to this, there received’t be as a lot of a seasonal enhance come spring, and thus persistence for an excellent deal will repay. And don’t be afraid to barter; some landlords could also be open to concessions like a free month’s lease or free parking.”

The highest ten most costly cities for renters in 2022

The highest ten least costly cities for renters in 2022

Information contains the 2022 aggregated median lease costs for every of the 50 largest metropolitan areas in comparison with 2021 knowledge from the identical interval. Information is the median of all 0-3 bed room rental properties. 

5. Homebuyers trying to relocate favored Solar-Belt cities

24.1% of homebuyers regarded to maneuver to a special metro through the three months ending in November. That is on par with the report excessive of 24.2% within the third quarter and up from 19.1% in 2019. 

• Homebuyers regarded to maneuver to sunny, comparatively reasonably priced areas, with Miami, Tampa, Las Vegas, and Phoenix being the preferred locations.
• Homebuyers regarded to maneuver away from costly coastal metros like San Francisco, Los Angeles, and New York, which topped the checklist.
• 100% of properties in lots of fashionable relocation metros skilled extreme drought previously 12 months, together with Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Sacramento.

“Just like 2021, continued progress in distant work and a want for housing affordability drove relocation patterns in 2022,” Marr continues. “Nevertheless, tendencies in some fashionable locations reversed course after they turned too fashionable, aggressive, and costly. Cities like Salt Lake Metropolis, Phoenix, Tucson, Dallas, and San Antonio all declined in reputation in 2022.”

Information is the % of Redfin.com customers looking for properties exterior their metro. Information is the 12 months median combination of a number of three month shifting aggregates and doesn’t embody September-December. Sustain with the newest migration information right here. 

6. Inflation rose at a report tempo, affecting each side of the housing market

The costs of products and companies rose to six.48% 12 months over 12 months in November, the very best proportion since August 1982 and greater than double the speed from November 2021. In reality, inflation charges have doubled in comparison with the earlier 12 months in each month since June. Rising costs severely restricted client spending and slowed practically each side of the housing market. 

• • To fight the historic inflation, the Fed raised its goal rate of interest to 4.5%, the highest in 15 years.
  • Skyrocketing rates of interest precipitated mortgage charges to rise and elevated fears of a recession, conserving homebuyers out of the housing market.
  • Inflation rose the quickest in pandemic boomtowns due partly to the sudden leap in home costs, which is a key contributor to inflation.

Information courtesy of FRED. Information measures core CPI (much less meals and vitality) by way of November 2022. 

7. Mortgage charges ballooned to almost 7% in response to report inflation

After many years of falling mortgage charges, in 2022, charges climbed to almost 7% in each October and November, larger than any level since 2002. In reality, from October 2021 to October 2022, mortgage charges doubled in a single 12 months for the primary time in historical past. 

Because the 12 months got here to a detailed, optimistic inflation knowledge helped scale back housing rates of interest to beneath 7%.

• In fashionable migration metros like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Austin, larger mortgage charges and costly house costs harm patrons essentially the most.
• In Phoenix, for instance, as mortgage charges climbed in Might and June, solely 21.5% of properties had been reasonably priced to patrons with a $2,500 month-to-month mortgage funds – a 28.5% drop from 2021.

Excessive inflation and rising mortgage charges typically deter patrons, however should you’re capable of afford it, possession stands out as the higher possibility. “Homeownership is a long-term funding that may result in vital internet value positive aspects, even with charges above 6%,” advises Dean Hayes, Space Gross sales Supervisor with Bay Equity, a Redfin firm. “Mortgage charges will probably go down within the new 12 months, which means extra house patrons will return to the market, creating elevated competitors and fewer room for negotiation.”

8. Housing stock rose after hitting a report low

10.7 million properties had been listed on the market by way of November, up 11.2% in comparison with the 9.5 million properties listed by way of November in 2021. Within the three months ending November 2022, the variety of properties on the market elevated by 15% 12 months over 12 months, the most important enhance on report. 

As mortgage charges rose alongside inflation, extra patrons determined to remain put, permitting stock to extend. Since December 2019, stock has declined 12 months over 12 months till it lastly rose in June 2022.

“Consumers have extra leverage now than they’ve since 2010,” advises San Francisco Redfin agent Josh Felder. “Even with larger mortgage charges, should you intend to remain put for longer than 5 years, it’s a terrific funding. Properties are forecast to nonetheless recognize, even in mild of present circumstances. Sellers ought to perceive that the market remains to be shifting. Properties don’t promote in 5 days, properly over checklist worth, anymore.”

Stock and provide are calculated in rolling 90-day durations, e.g., January 2022 knowledge is the three-month interval from November 1, 2021, by way of January 31, 2022.

9. Months of provide dropped to a near-record low of simply 1.2 months

Whereas stock measures the variety of properties at present obtainable on the market, months of provide measures the period of time it could take these properties to promote. 4 to 5 months of housing provide is taken into account the optimum benchmark. Lower than three months of housing provide typically implies that there are extra patrons than sellers, whereas a better quantity means there are extra sellers than patrons. Stock and provide sometimes transfer collectively. 

Nationwide, months of housing provide dipped to only over 1.2 months in March earlier than slowly rebounding in the summertime. 12 months over 12 months, months of provide has declined virtually each month since January 2020. 

• As patrons retreated as a consequence of excessive inflation and rates of interest, months of provide started to develop in July and August, reaching 2.3 months of provide by September.
• In Seattle, months of provide reached a near-record low of simply 15.5 days in January and February, the bottom of any main metropolitan space.

“We’re rapidly working again towards a balanced market, which is three to 6 months of stock,” says Seattle-area Redfin agent Brian Shields. “We’ve been in a vendor’s market with lower than 5 months of stock for a number of years, till halfway by way of this 12 months. Consumers now have much more selections than they did final Spring.”

Stock and provide are calculated in 90-day durations, e.g., January 2022 knowledge is the three-month interval from November 1, 2021, by way of January 31, 2022.

10. New building took up a rising share of housing stock 

There have been 1.25 million privately-owned new properties constructed within the U.S. by way of November 2022, up 3% from a 12 months in the past. As inflation rose and the market slowed, builders started slowing their manufacturing to dump what they already had. 

New building has been taking on a rising portion of total housing provide since 2011, when constructing rebounded after the monetary disaster. This pattern intensified in 2021 and solely lately started to decelerate. “In case you’re a purchaser, think about new building properties,” advises Kim Stearns, a Northern Idaho Redfin agent. “Due to a listing buildup, many builders have one to 4 properties they’d love to shut on and can typically supply incentives.”  

• Over 63% of latest builds had been single-family properties, up 2% 12 months over 12 months
• New building begins dropped from their peak of 164,000 in April to 111,000 in November

Information courtesy of Census.gov. 

11. House gross sales fell practically 17% 12 months over 12 months 

5.62 million U.S. properties bought by way of November, down 16.6% 12 months over 12 months, a pointy lower from the 6.74 million bought in 2021 throughout the identical interval. Basically, between 4 and 7 million properties promote per 12 months, with the historic common sitting at just over 5 million. 12 months-over-year house gross sales decreased in each month of 2022, with October and November posting the sharpest declines. 

• Simply 376,000 properties bought in November, down 37.4% 12 months over 12 months and a seasonally-adjusted historic low (since 2001).
• June was the busiest month with 626,641 properties bought, a 15.2% year-over-year dip.

Information was collected by way of November.

12. Median days on market rose at a report tempo, signaling a dramatic turnaround from 2021’s breakneck tempo

In 2022, properties spent a mean of simply 24 days available on the market, an 8.4% enhance 12 months over 12 months in comparison with the 22 days available on the market in 2021. Since 2020, a housing provide crunch has been attributable to provide chain points, a persistent lack of homebuilding, and a rise in demand. In 2022, time available on the market ticked up as homebuilding started to catch as much as demand and excessive mortgage and inflation charges restricted patrons’ spending energy. 

“Because of a slowing economic system and layoffs within the tech sector close to the top of the 12 months, many patrons paused their house search as a consequence of affordability and job safety,” notes Frank Vettesse III, a San Francisco Redfin agent. “This was one in every of many elements that contributed to the dramatic slowdown in gross sales.”

• Might was the busiest month of the 12 months, with properties spending a mean of simply 17 days available on the market.
• Within the 4 weeks ending December 4th, properties spent a mean of 37 days available on the market, the slowest month of 2022 and the most important year-over-year slowdown on report.

13. 14% of energetic house listings skilled worth drops 

On common, 14% of energetic properties on the market had worth drops in 2022, up 4.7% 12 months over 12 months. In October, 22.6% of listings had worth drops, a decades-long excessive. In reality, from February by way of July, the variety of properties with worth drops rose from 5.7% to 19.5%, a record-fast enhance. “The shift was dramatic,” says Christy Seashore, a Seattle-area Redfin agent. “The patrons who didn’t safe a house through the top of competitors are actually bidding low. For instance, the identical sort of house that patrons had been prepared to supply $200,000 over checklist worth are actually providing $200,000 beneath checklist worth.” 

• In Denver, 47% of properties skilled reductions in worth, the very best proportion of any main metropolis.
• Regardless that worth drops had been widespread, median sale costs nonetheless elevated in virtually each metro within the county. 
• Many pandemic-era migration hotspots, corresponding to Tampa, Las Vegas, and West Palm Seashore, had a big proportion of listings with worth drops as properly.

“As sellers with stale listings turned more and more anxious to get their properties bought, we noticed a steep rise in worth drops by way of the summer season right here in Washington State,” says Darlene Haselton, a Tacoma, WA Redfin agent. “At present, properties which are recent available on the market are beginning to transfer extra rapidly. As mortgage charges dip additional, in-demand properties might begin receiving a number of affords.” 

The highest 5 cities with the very best share of worth drops in 2022

Information contains the median worth drops out of all energetic listings in every of the 50 largest metropolitan areas. 

14. 55% of properties had a bidding battle

55% of properties had bidding wars in 2022, down from 64% in 2021. Coastal metros skilled the very best charges of bidding wars, together with Boston (69.8%) and Los Angeles (67.7%). 

Nevertheless, nationwide, bidding wars fell from 72% to 35% from February to November. A worsening economic system, larger mortgage charges, and a rise in provide contributed to the slowdown.

Shauna Pendleton, a Boise, ID Redfin agent, advises sellers to be affected person and look ahead to mortgage charges to drop. “Except a house is priced $100,000 or extra below market worth, bidding wars are largely non-existent. Our group nonetheless hears of some multiple-offer conditions; in these instances, it’s sometimes a luxurious house in a high-demand neighborhood that’s priced very aggressively.” 

The highest 5 metros with the very best proportion of bidding wars in 2022

Information contains the median proportion of bidding wars throughout energetic listings in every of the 50 largest metropolitan areas. 

15. Over 30% of properties had been bought with money in 2022

30.7% of properties had been bought with all money, up 2% 12 months over 12 months. In October (the newest knowledge obtainable), 32% of properties had been paid for with all money, up 2% 12 months over 12 months and the very best share since 2014. 

• Florida was the preferred state for all-cash purchases, particularly Jacksonville and West Palm Seashore.
• Costly west coast metros, together with Oakland, San Jose, and Seattle, had the bottom share of all-cash purchases.

Information is from a Redfin evaluation of county information throughout 39 of essentially the most populous U.S. metropolitan areas, courting again by way of 2011. Information doesn’t embody November or December.

16. Actual property buyers bought practically 20% of accessible listings, a brand new report

Vying to capitalize on the housing and rental increase, buyers bought 233,701 properties in 2022 by way of September, a record-breaking 19.1% of all listings. Multifamily residential properties constituted the most important proportion of investor market share, with a mean of 30% of those properties being bought by buyers. 

Pandemic boomtowns turned the most important investor hotspots, particularly in Solar-Belt metros.

The highest 5 metros with the most important investor market shares in 2022

Information is analyzed on a quarterly foundation and contains all property sorts except in any other case said. Complete proportion is the common of information from January-September. Information doesn’t embody the final quarter of 2022. 

17. Luxurious house gross sales skilled their greatest year-over-year decline on report

In 2022, there have been 258,733 luxurious properties bought within the U.S., down 27% 12 months over 12 months and the most important decline since 2012. Lively listings dropped even additional, falling by 32.7% 12 months over 12 months. The median sale worth for a luxurious house was $1,080,000, up 14.8% 12 months over 12 months. Costs reached their peak of $1,120,000 through the three months ending Might, a 15.7% year-over-year enhance. Nevertheless, worth progress, listings, and gross sales slowed considerably as demand cooled later within the 12 months. 

• Within the three months ending November thirtieth, luxurious house gross sales fell by 38.1%, the most important drop on report. 
• Luxurious properties spent a mean of 32 days available on the market by way of November, up 28.9% 12 months over 12 months
• Tampa was the quickest rising luxurious market, with costs rising by 32.3% 12 months over 12 months
• Luxurious house gross sales declined by 47% in San Jose, the most important fall of any main metro

“In Seattle, luxurious listings noticed the most important reductions in worth,” continues Seattle agent Christy Seashore. “Within the present market, most sellers with a worth level of $1.5 million or larger want to arrange to make their house stand out among the many competitors. As a rule, sellers are having to barter their worth and phrases with patrons.”

Luxurious properties are outlined as the highest 5% of listings in a given market. Values are three month shifting aggregates ending on the date proven, e.g., November 2022 spans September, October, and November 2022. Information doesn’t embody the three months ending December 31. 

Trying ahead

The 2022 housing market was chaotic, however what does Redfin predict for 2023? Learn our 2023 Housing Market Predictions to study extra.

All knowledge was compiled by the week ending December 23, 2022. Information is aggregated from January to November and doesn’t embody December except said in any other case. All knowledge is from Redfin, FRED, and/or public information. For questions on metrics, learn our metrics definitions web page.